Cov khoom lag luam pauv ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj: kev txheeb cais thiab kev loj hlob zoo

2024 Tus sau: Henry Conors | [email protected]. Kawg hloov kho: 2024-02-12 08:00

Tom qab qhia txog kev nplua nyiaj txiag, Russia yuav tsum rov xav txog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam txawv teb chaws. Tuam Tshoj, raws li lub teb chaws nrog kev lag luam loj tshaj plaws, yog tus xa khoom loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb. Tsis tas li ntawd, thaj chaw nyob ze tau ntxiv dag zog rau nws txoj haujlwm ua tus tswv cuab kev lag luam ntawm Russia. Qhov zoo ntawm kev lag luam ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj yog maj mam nce. Raws li tau sau tseg los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Ministry of Commerce, hauv tsawg dua 40 xyoo, kev lag luam ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj tau nce ntau dua 130 zaug, los ntawm $ 500 lab hauv xyoo 1980 txog $ 69.5 billion hauv 2016. Tuam Tshoj yog Russia tus lag luam tseem ceeb rau ob qho tib si ntshuam thiab xa tawm. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, Russia nyob qib kaum ntawm kev xa tawm thiab thib cuaj ntawm kev xa khoom.

keeb kwm me ntsis

Kev lag luam ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj tuaj yeem ua tiav txhua qhov sib txawv, ntawm qib sib txawv tshaj li tam sim no. Tom qab tag nrho, Lavxias teb sab kev ua lag luam yuav ntau cov khoom tiav nrog tus nqi siab ntawm tus nqi ntxiv, thiab muag feem ntau me ntsis cov ntaub ntawv raw. Xws li kev hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj tau tshwm sim nyob rau nees nkaum xyoo dhau los vim qhov kev loj hlob sai ntawm Suav kev lag luam thiab tsis heev.kev ua tau zoo ntawm Lavxias teb sab ntau lawm.

Nyob rau xyoo 1998, cov tshuab thiab khoom siv hauv Lavxias xa tawm suav txog 25%, tam sim no cov khoom no yog kwv yees li 2.2%. Kev lag luam hloov pauv ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj (los ntawm 1999 txog 2008) qhia tau hais tias muaj qhov zoo sib xws. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, txog rau xyoo 2006, kev xa tawm ntawm cov khoom lag luam Lavxias tau ntau dua li cov khoom lag luam ntawm Suav. Txawm li cas los xij, kev xa khoom ntawm Suav cov khoom lag luam tau nce nrawm dua, thiab hauv 2007 Russia thawj zaug tau muaj kev cuam tshuam kev lag luam tsis zoo hauv kev sib koom ua lag luam. Tuam Tshoj tau dhau los ua tus khub lag luam tseem ceeb ntxiv rau Russia, qeb thib peb rau thawj zaug hauv 2007 thiab thawj zaug hauv 2010 hais txog kev lag luam. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, tus qauv ntawm Russia cov khoom xa tawm maj mam hloov mus rau cov khoom muag. Los ntawm 2011, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam kev sib raug zoo ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj tau tshwm sim. Qhov ntim thiab cov qauv ntawm kev lag luam ntawm lub teb chaws yog txiav txim siab, ntawm ib sab, los ntawm kev ua tiav ntawm kev hloov pauv nyiaj txiag hauv Suav teb, thiab, ntawm qhov tod tes, los ntawm cov khoom lag luam dynamics.

Plans and reality

Russia muaj ob peb zaug tau teeb tsa nws tus kheej lub hom phiaj ntawm kev ua lag luam nce ntxiv ntawm cov tebchaws. Xyoo 2014, thaum kev lag luam pauv nyiaj ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm $ 95.3 nphom, Lavxias Thawj Tswj Hwm Vladimir Putin tau hais tias los ntawm xyoo tom ntej nws tau npaj yuav tuav lub bar ntawm $ 100 billion, thiab los ntawm 2020 $ 200 billion. Txog tam sim no, nws tseem tsis tau muaj peev xwm ua kom muaj kev loj hlob tseem ceeb thiab ruaj khov.

Raws li General Administration of Customs of China, xyoo 2017 kev lag luam pauv ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshojnce 20.8% piv rau yav dhau los. Nyob rau hauv tag nrho, cov tog tau pauv rau 84 billion dollars. Russia tau yuav $ 42.9 billion tus nqi ntawm Suav cov khoom, nce 14.8% xyoo-rau-xyoo, thiab muag $ 27.7 billion tus nqi, nce 27.7%. Thaum kawg ntawm 2016, kev sib koom ua lag luam nce los ntawm tsuas yog 2.2% thiab muaj nqis txog $ 69.5 nphom, thaum kev yuav khoom hauv Suav teb nce 7.3% ($ 37.2 billion), thaum muag khoom ntawm Lavxias teb sab poob 3.1% ($ 32.2 billion). Kev sib koom ua lag luam maj mam rov qab los tom qab muaj kev puas tsuaj loj hauv xyoo 2015, thaum xa tawm mus rau Russia poob los ntawm 34.4% thiab kev xa tawm los ntawm 19.1%. Dab tsi yog tshwm sim los ntawm kev txo qis ntawm cov ruble, suav nrog kev tawm tsam Suav yuan. Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Txhim Kho Kev Lag Luam tau txiav txim siab tias kev nce hauv kev lag luam ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj yog qhov tseem ceeb rau kev ua kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm lub teb chaws txoj kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam, lub hom phiaj ntawm 200 billion los ntawm 2020 tseem tsis tau muab tso tseg.

Russian exports

Cov peev txheej ntxhia (xws li hydrocarbons) ua tus thawj coj Lavxias xa tawm mus rau Tuam Tshoj. Cov khoom xa tawm tseem ceeb ntawm Lavxias yog cov roj thiab cov khoom siv roj, cov ntoo, cov khoom siv nuclear thiab cov cuab yeej cuab tam, ntses, thiab cov khoom siv tshuaj. Hauv xyoo 2017, Russia tau muab $ 25.3 billion tus nqi ntawm hydrocarbons, kwv yees li $ 4 billion tus nqi ntawm cov ntoo thiab ntoo, thiab kwv yees li $ 1.5 billion tus nqi ntawm armaments thiab khoom siv rau nuclear fais fab nroj tsuag rau txhua yam khoom. Cov khoom tseem ceeb tom ntej ntawm Lavxias teb sab xa tawm yog cov khoom noj ntses thiab nqaij nruab deg: me ntsis ntau dua 1 billion ib2017. Cov khoom hiav txwv yog muab los ntawm Primorsky Krai mus rau ciam teb cheeb tsam ntawm Tuam Tshoj, qhov twg tsis muaj kev xyaum ua cov ntses hauv zos.

Import Russia

Russia imports tshuab thiab khoom siv, khaub ncaws, khau thiab lwm yam khoom siv, tshuaj lom neeg los ntawm Tuam Tshoj. Cov khoom xa tuaj loj tshaj plaws hauv xyoo 2017 tau poob rau ntawm cov khoom hauv qab no: cov khoom siv - txog $ 13.6 billion thiab cov tshuab hluav taws xob - $ 11.8 billion, kwv yees li 6 billion yog rau kev yuav khoom ntawm cov neeg siv khoom (khaub ncaws, khau, khoom ua si, kaus, thiab lwm yam). Tag nrho Far East thiab Siberia yog cov khoom siv loj thiab khoom noj khoom haus los ntawm Tuam Tshoj. Kev xa khoom ntawm ntau yam khoom hauv xyoo 2017 yog kwv yees li $ 1 nphom.

qauv kev lag luam

Tus qauv ntawm kev lag luam ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj tau hloov pauv ntau ntawm 1998 thiab 2011. Kev xa khoom ntawm cov tshuab thiab khoom siv los ntawm Russia tau txo qis los ntawm 18 zaug. Hauv Suav teb, ntawm qhov tsis sib xws, muaj qhov nce ntawm cov khoom no mus rau 40% ntawm tag nrho cov khoom. Kev faib tawm ntawm hydrocarbons nyob rau hauv Lavxias teb sab exports tau mus txog 49%, thiab feem ntawm raw cov ntaub ntawv yog hais txog 70%. Txij li thaum xyoo 2016, muaj qhov txo qis hauv kev xa tawm ntawm cov ore thiab hlau, vim qhov tsis zoo hauv ntiaj teb no thiab kev txo qis hauv metallurgical ntau lawm hauv Suav teb. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov kev faib ua feem ntawm cov hlau tsis muaj hlau uas yuav tsum tau muaj rau cov khoom siv high-tech yog nce. Kwv yees li 20% ntawm Tuam Tshoj xa tawm yog cov khoom siv, 10% yog tshuaj lom neegkhoom.

Kev lag luam hla ciam teb

Russia muaj ciam teb ntev tshaj plaws nrog Tuam Tshoj - 4209.3 mais, uas tsim kom muaj lub sijhawm zoo rau kev txhim kho kev lag luam hla ciam teb. Hauv Suav teb, tag nrho cov nroog tau loj hlob raws ciam teb nrog Russia, nrog rau txoj kev Lavxias thiab cov neeg muag khoom hais lus Lavxias. Txawm hais tias Russia tag nrho tsis yog tus lag luam loj txawv teb chaws ntawm Tuam Tshoj, hauv 10 xyoo dhau los, nws tau suav txog 40% mus rau 50% ntawm tag nrho Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam ntawm hom kev lag luam ciam teb. Hauv qee lub xyoo, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam hla ciam teb tau siab dua qhov kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam pauv ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj los ntawm ntau dua 10%, thiab nws feem hauv qee lub xyoo tau nce mus txog 21%. Ib feem tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam yog nyob hauv cov khoom ua liaj ua teb uas tsim nyob rau hauv Russia, tab sis los ntawm Suav tuam txhab. Nyob rau hauv cov qauv ntawm Suav imports ntawm ciam teb cheeb tsam, khoom siv, zaub, khaub ncaws, thiab khau yeej. Thiab nyob rau hauv qhov opposite direction mus feem ntau cov khoom, nrog rau cov ntses, ntoo.

Prospects

Hloov cov qauv xa tawm tsis yooj yim. Nyob rau hauv lub xyoo tom ntej, lo lus teb rau lo lus nug: "Yuav ua li cas yog lub lag luam turnover ntawm Russia thiab Tuam Tshoj?" yuav tsis ncaj ncees lawm - peb muab lawv nrog raw cov ntaub ntawv, thiab lawv muab peb cov khoom tiav. Tom qab kev tsim kho lub zog ntawm Siberia gas pipeline tiav lawm, natural gas yuav dhau los ua lwm yam khoom ntawm Lavxias teb sab export. Qee qhov kev txo qis ntawm cov khoom siv raw khoom yuav tshwm sim thaum lub sijhawm ua haujlwm ntawm cov kev pabcuam cuam tshuam rau lub koom haum ntawm Suav kev lag luam hauv tebchaws Russia nrog rau kev xa tawm ntawm cov khoom tiav mus rauSuav teb.